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Businees Cycle in the Indonesian Economy.
The Purpose of The Study : identifying the cycle of the Indonesian economy. The objectives are as follow: firt, it is desired to know how long the average length of a cycle lasted and when the through of the cycle happened. second, to identify a few indicators leading the cycle, namely, leading indicators.
The conclution of business cycle in the Indonesia economy : Monthhly Industrial Production Indekx (1984-1998). Based on this group of first contraction begun in the fourth quater 1987 up to the third quater of 1988. it lasted for four quaters (one year). The second contraction begun in the first quater of 1996 up to the third quater of 1996. it lasted for three quaters. The third contraction begun in the third quater of 1997. up to Dec. 1998 (until the last data used in this study), this contraction seems to be lasted and the degree of the declining curve show that this contraction is the worst contraction have ever happened in the Indonesian economy.
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